odds to win the 2024 presidential election

“The economy should be something of a tailwind for the president, but it may not be enough of a tailwind, given everything else that’s going on, to reelect him,” he said.Įxperts caution that it’s hard to forecast anything a year away from the election. “The unemployment rate is exceptionally low … but the fact that we’re paying so much more for everything we buy, food, rent, gasoline - that’s a pretty powerful headwind,” he said.Ī Biden win isn’t a sure thing even if inflation continues to fade from view, which Zandi expects to happen. The Moody’s model includes unemployment, inflation and gas prices, which Zandi notes are the key drivers of consumer sentiment.

Modelers say those trends may have bolstered the odds of a Biden win in 2024 - but only slightly. The unemployment rate has been below 4 percent for 21 months in a row, the longest stretch in more than 50 years.” “The economy has created 14 million jobs since I took office and 150,000 jobs in October. The economy’s resilience has given Biden plenty of ammunition to tout his programs: “Bidenomics is growing the economy from the middle out and bottom up - not the top down,” the president said earlier this month. Still, growth has remained surprisingly strong - defying many economists’ expectations of a recession - even as the Federal Reserve has aggressively cranked up interest rates, and unemployment remains near half-century lows at below 4 percent, all while inflation has eased to more tolerable levels. “We know that voters feel some anxiety about the economy, and it’s our job to communicate to them.” “This is going to be a close election,” principal deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks told reporters last week on a call.

Inflation is cooling it isn’t enough.”īiden campaign officials themselves acknowledge it will be a tough fight in 2024.

“The reality is we’ve only seen wages outpace inflation for six or seven months,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “The growth rate next year is OK, but not great, and inflation over the four years is fairly high,” Fair said. will not experience a recession next year - by no means a guarantee with interest rates at two-decade highs and the flow of credit tightening. Fair’s model focuses on economic growth per capita and inflation, and his projection is based on the assumption that the economy will slow, but the U.S.

Odds to win the 2024 presidential election